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Showing posts from December, 2014

Your Optimistic Bias won't Allow Your Estimate to Improve

When asked, many people wish to get better at estimation by tracking actuals and then assuming that some form of reflection upon those actuals will lead to better estimation.  I've long held a belief that it doesn't happen quite so simply in reality.  There are many assumptions in that proposal that are just glossed over.   Let's list a few (just for fun):  Actuals are accurate and precise representations, time will be allotted to reflections and learning,  people (teams of people) will all arrive at similar conclusions and learn from the reflection of estimate not equal to actual, future behavior will change significantly and quickly, among other assumptions.



Well finally science has something to say about this.  A study: "How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality" by Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan published in Nature Neuroscience (2011) has some fMRI proof that these behaviors are hard to change.

In the study the author…

The ROI of Multiple Small Releases

In a few minutes how do you explain the benefits of multiple incremental releases to someone new to this agile mindset?  I'm convinced that if I try to use words (which is typically the case when caught in a hallway conversation) or even words and a few quick sketches - I will not do justice to the complex concept.  Why?  Because this concept deals with multiple what if scenarios that play out in long timeframes with little feedback.

So needing to have this conversation today, I had the time to do a search for some help.  And I found this wonderful article and video with a voice over explanation.

Business Benefits of Software Release in Multiple Increments
And there is an interactive Wolfram graphic you can play with yourself.

http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/BusinessBenefitsOfReleasingSoftwareInMultipleIncrements/
Now with this link and the video explanation (done with a german accent I think, gives it real authority) - I can solve the problem of coming to that shared understandi…

Puzzle Game:: The Impossible Room

My progress in The Impossible Room - iOS app puzzle game by Maruf Nebil.

“Only one room
 Only one way
 Key is alive
 Leave or stay"


Spoiler Alert --- some puzzles are solved below.
Day 1.

Collected Items  ———— paper scrap lamp shade screwdriver tesla book USB cord

Book Shelf  - opens Screwdriver ------------------------------------- Aristotle  384 BCE Roger Bacon  1214 - 1292 Leonardo Da Vinci  1452 - 1519 Copernicus  1473 - 1543 Galileo  1564 - 1642 Newton  1642 - 1727 Faraday  1791 - 1867 Tesla  1856- 1943 Alan Turing  1912 - 1954 Stephen Hawking  1942




 3 Stars - 5 points; ball on one point - 1 missing star;  color of stars & books may signify the overlap of authors lives shark - pinguen - robot   - got a  USB cord in drawer (^^^)   <(“)   :|]

Bird - Dog - Elephant - Dolphin   (brown yellow gray blue) A-Z  4-char blue red green  3 colors 0-9   7 numbers 4 greek letters -  Theta, Sigma, Psi, Omega Th, S, Ps, O 9, 200, 700, 800



Picture of sheep man dog house trees clouds
by Egi…

Agile outside of Software

Ricardo Semler discusses the broken education system and his re-imaged school and how the children are making the same old rules - but now also enforcing them. He founded The Ralston-Semler Foundation and the Lumiar School, a democratic school where children engage in projects of their own interest. There are three such schools; one in São Paulo and two in Campos do Jordão.

Ricardo Semler: How to run a company with (almost) no rules



TED Talk Bruce Feiler - Agile programming for your Family

Agile in Education

It appears that our education system is ripe for disruption and many people are using the software techniques to inject a bit of self-organization into the education system.


AGILE IN EDUCATION COMPASS Together, we are discoverers of the world and ourselves.
The world is no longer predictable and learning needs to be more adaptive, connected, and interdependent.
Education can respond to this constantly changing landscape with agility.
Through our journey, new paths unfold to reveal learn…

Finally - Disruptive Innovation in Construction

Otis did a wonderful thing back in the 1850s and sparked the verticalization of cities.  Ever wonder why Paris is such a wonderful feeling city?  It's because most of it was built before there were elevators.  So the practical building was limited to about 5 floors.  And the top floors were the cheeper rent, because you had to huff your groceries up all those stairs.

So here's what lack of true innovation does to an industry... it sets it's sights on just the one single solutions.  That is to make vertical buildings with duplicate floor plans, story after story for 100 or so floors.  And that results in the architectural wonder known as the sky scraper.  Good for little else but setting height records (and then fighting over what to measure at said height - a living floor or a radio antenna).

Wait a few decades (or 8 score in this case) and someone comes up with a disruptive innovation.

Is this it?  The disruptive innovation in buildings that allows architects to think in …